If anyone is interested here’s where the slide on possible aviation futures ended up following my aviation post a while ago. Originally one axis was political/economic stability (high v low), which would obviously impact oil price. But in the end I was persuaded to go with a competition axis (many v few). The other axis is around the need or desire of passengers to fly (a mix of safety, terrorism, costs and technology advances, especially telepresence and video).
I’m not saying this is right (it’s probably not) but it’s what came out in a relatively short space of time. One unused matrix that was very tempting included a matrix around whether the dynamics of globalization were physical versus virtual. Thanks to Jeff De Cagna who focussed by thinking on need/desire to fly and also to Oliver who bounced around some thoughts with me.