A study produced by Thomson Reuters last month says that China should pass both the US and Japan in the number of patent applications made by next year. In 2009, China made 403,000 patent applications, putting it in third place after Japan. The US topped the rankings with 474,000 applications.

Is this an issue? From an overall standpoint no. The more scientific and technological progress the better. From a national GDP or technology competitiveness point of view yes. Patents are a good measure of innovativeness and there are also correlations between the number of patents and the number of Nobel Prize winners, so this will impact on national optimism and the feel-good factor generally.

There are lots of scenarios here. One is that China falls over and turns inward economically. Another is that China starts to top lists like this, becomes the world’s #1 economy (by 2030 or 2035?) and other nations, such as the US, turn inwards economically and lash out politically.