According to a set of scenarios developed by Oxford Economics, a Greek exist from the Euro is a 15-20% probability with a multiple exist around 30% probable. The same reports puts a Chinese hard (economic) landing at 5-10% and the US falling off a fiscal cliff at around 10%.

How do these figures manifest themselves in everyday life? One thing I’ve observed recently is that it’s getting more difficult to buy a safe. They have mostly been sold, including some rather large ones. Why? I suspect the reason is that people no longer trust the banks. Also low interest rates make the holding of cash a perfectly reasonable idea. I’ve also noticed that in the US the sale of handguns and ammunition has gone through the roof recently – seriously.

Oxford scenarios report (2 page PDF) download here.