#1. Uncertainty

In 2011, nothing will be certain except uncertainty. With the economic recovery still brittle in many parts of the world, people will be looking for safety, reassurance and control. They will be disappointed. What people can expect, with some degree of certainty, is that there will be widespread anxiety, especially in financial markets, and there will be a background expectation that something will sooner or later go wrong.

Implications

Politicians and markets will swing between irrational pessimism and irrational exuberance and this will create policies (and prices) that tend to overshoot and then over-correct. On the domestic front, people will hold off making big-ticket purchases until there is a clearer view of what lies ahead. They may have to wait a long time. Nostalgia will be big in 2011 because it offers people a glimpse of simpler, safer, and more certain times.