I’m going to post my top ten trends for 2009 every day for the next 10 days (at least that’s the theory). Here’s the first one…

Trend # 10: Fear of the unknown

The point of this trend is merely to push home the point that the future is ultimately unknowable. Yes you can see general patterns and make well-educated speculations about next week and next year based on partly on past events and human behavior. But if history teaches us anything it is surely that totally unexpected ideas, inventions and events (the so-called ‘Black Swans’ in 2008 speak) have a habit of ruining logical and well laid-out plans. Uncertainty also links with ideas surrounding anxiety and complexity and it is interesting to note that during previous periods of rapid change and upheaval, superstition and dogmatic religious beliefs both flourished.

Implications

Anything can happen and impossible is nothing. Having said this there are clearly things we know. There are also things we know we don’t know and there are things we don’t know that we don’t know. Trend #10 is about the second group of unknowns (highly improbable but highly impactful events that tend not to follow trend lines or logic – those Black Swans again).

This trend (OK, it’s really more of an idea or observation) is about how when something big and unexpected happens (e.g. a financial crisis) we overreact after the event. We assume that the same thing will happen again and make plans to stop it happening again. For example, if terrorists take over two planes and fly them into buildings we assume that they will do it again, in almost exactly the same way and possibly even on the same date. The big link here is with our aversion to risk and the (largely false) idea that we can totally control risk or live in a 100% risk free environment.