My columns for Fast Company are being migrated to the new Fast Company.com website. In the meantime I’m posting as many of the originals as I can find here. Be aware that some of these go back to 2004 and many ideas have moved on to say the least. ‘Columns’ also includes various other magazine and newspaper writings.

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There’s nothing like being in the right place at the right time. Smart companies spend big money on research and development to ensure that their offerings are up to date — and to make sure they don’t miss out on lucrative new opportunities. Traditionally, this practice has been the sole stomping ground of qualitative and quantitative research firms, but not any more. After all, nobody anticipated that trendspotting itself would become a trend. Of course, forecasting and analyzing trends is not new. Automobile manufacturers have strategically planned the colors of new makes and models for decades, and fashion designers use forecasting to predict what we’ll wear three or four seasons ahead. What is new is the emergence and widespread adoption of trendspotting by organizations outside such industries. Companies such as Wal-Mart, Campbell’s Soup, Lego, Marks & Spencer, Virgin, and ICI all use trend forecasting as part of their innovation processes and as a way to anticipate what their customers will want in the future. Why is this happening now? Many business leaders have lost confidence in traditional consumer research methodologies, especially when applied to innovation. This also ties into a general decline of trust (itself a major trend), the increasing acceleration of business, and the quest for certainty and security. There is also the belief that, in a scientific age, it should be possible to predict what’s going to happen next. Companies are therefore constantly looking for new ways to ensure that they don’t become the victims of change and end up with a warehouse full of unsold inline scooters. Remember the Razor? That’s why trends can be double-edged swords. On the one hand, they are very useful. They can provide a strategic framework for innovation and help organizations keep existing products and services relevant. But being aware of trends — developing and otherwise — is not foolproof.