I’m still playting around with this, but it might form the basis of a talk….people love lists right?

Deglobalisation
We’ve been here before, of course. In 1914 centuries of interconnected global trade ended abruptly due to the outbreak of WW1. No world war just yet (See Dictatorships) and global digital connectivity mostly continues unabated (albeit with The Great Firewall of China, EU obfuscation and US belligerence), but we are entering an era where barriers and walls are being erected not being torn down. Deglobalisation is largely a political consequence of economic pressures and inequalities but can also be traced to sustainability concerns and the weaking of cultural identities. Nevertheless, at the heart of such localism and protectionism, I suggest, is old fashioned tribalism, which emerges when people feel threatened or disempowered by others or more accurately, perhaps, ‘them’. Links to Disorder and De-growth.
Book recommendation: The levelling: What’s Next After Globalisation by Michael O’Sullivan

Demographics
You can poke holes in most mega-trends going forward, but demographics remains resolutely destiny. The global population is growing rapidly now but runs into some maths around mid-century, namely 1+1 = 0. People just aren’t reproducing like they used to, and fertility rates are collapsing (a growing population essentially requires 1+1 to equal >2 unless you can factor in net positive immigration flows). In short, people are no longer breeding like rabbits, and they aren’t dying like flies either. Result? A rapidly ageing world (with exceptions e.g. sub-Saharan Africa) and one in which household and workforces are shrinking rapidly. Solutions? Immigration is one solution. Paying people to reproduce is another. Beyond that it’s AI, automation and robotics (See Japan as a foretaste). Tenuous link to another d, Death, (or “the death problem”) which some Delusional billionaires (another ‘d’) are trying to avoid.
Book recommendation: The Lonely Century by Noreena Hertz.

Decarbonisation
We (well some countries at least) are rapidly scaling clean energy transmission and storage and reducing carbon emissions. Good on them, but some countries are arguably doing it too fast (result: instability of supply and/or high energy costs) while other countries are hardly doing it at all and what/s even worse are simultaneously scaling AI and data centres expansion, which are still highly reliant on fossil fuels and create emissions that dwarf those of aviation, for example. Not a problem longer term, but short term we’re all in trouble weather-wise. If push comes to shove certain leaders seem willing to allow jam today to trump jam tomorrow and to hell with future generations. Quite what future generations will do about this remains to be seen.
(Note: It’s perhaps not the rich/poor divide that should concern us but an old/young divide, although to some extent they are the same thing). Links to Destabilisation.
Book recommendation: Positive Tipping Points: How to Fix the Climate Crisis by Tim Lenton

Debt
Most countries are bankrupt in business terms and exist by robbing Peter to pay Paul. The global economy is thus a giant pyramid scheme where debt is simply played forward to deal with at some unspecified future date. The US is looking especially vulnerable but so too are countries like France. There are ways out of this, but none are especially palatable to most people and most end up with hyper-inflation one way or another. Contrast sovereign debt with corporate surpluses and one starts to wonder whether a global tax overhaul for multinational companies might be in order. Interesting fact. The word credit derives from the Latin to believe or to trust. Tenuous link to Distrust?
Book recommendation: Capital in the Twenty First Century by Thomas Piketty

Digitalisation
I’m so bored of AI and it doesn’t start with the letter D either so thank goodness I don’t have to write about it directly. Regardless, digitalisation in all forms, which would include AI and quantum computing, continues to reshape the world for reasons that are not entirely clear to me beyond greed and fear. What’s interesting to me though, is that digital products and services rarely result in the extinction of analogue alternatives.
In other words, we inhabit a world of ‘and’ not ‘or’. We have e-books and music streaming, but we continue to have physical books and live music. It’s also interesting that Generation Alpha (those below Gen Z) seem to be actively eschewing digital products in many instances. It seems almost heretical to suggest a period of De-digitalisation (another ‘d’) but it’s not totally impossible.
Book recommendation: What is Intelligence? Lessons from AI About Evolution, Computing and Minds by Blaise Aguera

Dehumanisation
Connectivity was supposed to bring people together, but it turns out it’s tearing us apart. It’s creating polarisation, which is fuelling conflict. Removing humans from the loop to increase profits or decrease costs is also making people feel disconnected, anxious and lonely. WFH? Fine, if you are that way inclined, but most people aren’t. Work is social. Culture requires our physical presence at some level. So does identity.
Shopping is much the same. Convenance alongside cost is a significant driver of behaviour, but we are tactile animals that like the sensory (and when done well theatrical) experience of shopping. A self-check-out terminal also removes human interaction, which for some people especially older people, is essential. If you want a vision of the future press #1 and hold for eternity while you wait for a customer service operative that no longer exists. Make humans great again!
Book recommendation: Human Kindness by Rutger Bregman

Dictatorships
Cast your mind back to the late 1990s and early 2000s. The internet and especially social media were the flowers of libertarian thinking born in the hippy communes of California. They were empowering and anti-hierarchical and the Arab Spring appeared to be an early example of things to come. Fast forward to late 2025 and the internet and social media have increasingly become the tools of dictators and surveillance societies. Meanwhile from left-leaning libertarian Tech Bros have u-turned to full-blown right-wing enablers. Links to Disillusionment with democracy, and the emergence of three power blocks with local spheres of imperialist influence; the US, China and Russia with the Middle East, Europe and Aus/NZ so far unaligned (or perhaps uninvaded).
D for Defence anyone? Disorder? Dissident?
Book recommendation: The Age of the Strongman by Gideon Rachman

Disconnection
It’s the end of the year and we all need some cheer, right? How about some reasons to be cheerful? Well, it’s not anything like 1914 for a start. It’s nothing like 1814 either. Pick any historical moment and for most of humanity it’s far better for most people now than it was then. This could change, but until it does our glasses should remain rosy and resolutely half-full. Also, dictators die, governments change and empires crumble.
One empire that I think is starting to show a few cracks is the one centred above the major earthquake zone known as Silicon Valley. Putting aside questions concerned ROI and associated valuations, ordinary people are starting to realise that digitalisation and AI especially, look set to make their lives worse, not better. The level of surveillance is starting to feel creepy, and the benefits of giving away our data are asymmetric at best.
My advice? Starve the algorithms! Disconnect to re-connect with what matters.
Book recommendation: How to Do Nothing by Jenny Odell