Shell’s latest set of scenarios for the world 2050 are now out and, interestingly, include a view out to 2100. Here are two overviews and here’s the link to the scenario book.
The first scenario, labelled “mountains”, sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.
The second scenario, which we call “oceans”, describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2060s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source.
BTW, as an aside, the idea of ‘peak oil’ is increasingly redundant as an idea as it fails to take into account the impact of other energy sources. At the very least one should now add gas to oil in the context of ‘peak’.