#2. Volatility
Intimately connected to uncertainty is volatility. The root cause of this is the connectivity now built into everything from financial markets to media and communications. This means the constant threat of cascading failure, with financial markets at the epicenter of seismic events. In some cases the risk can be real. The threat of a debt crisis in one country can lead to a genuine crisis of confidence in another. However, contagion can be imagined and in some cases manufactured. Information pandemics rapidly spread false or misleading information, but such is the rapidity of the cycle that nobody has the time to verify the facts or call to account those spreading disinformation.
Implications
Commodity price spikes and wild fluctuations in the price of assets. Indeed, volatility means that nobody is quite sure what the underlying value of many assets now is, which only adds to the volatility. Some people will make huge amounts of money from such movements, although where one can safely stash such rewards is far from clear.
Watch out for more individuals flocking to ‘safe’ investments such as art, prime real estate, agricultural land, gilts, low risk bonds and gold.
…most of which will, of course, decrease in value by the time the uncertainty is over.
A few thoughts
a) End of Privacy – as predicted by the owner of Facebook and now highlighted by wikileaks.
b) Augmented reality
Increasing number of tablet computers such as Samsung Galaxy and probably the ipad 2 have with multiple cameras, GPS and web access for fast backoffice analysis of the views.
c) 4D
3D plus touch like ultrasonics becoming more mainstream
d) 3d printers – waiting for the killer app for this one ?
May be 3d printers for genetic engineers to make there own critters (long shot)
e) bubbles burst – gold price collapse.
f) Global tensions – taken out on the likes of Iran and North korean via staged fake wikileak releases.
g) Persecuted minorities – they always get a hard time.
h) Take of free trade but not implementing free trade
i) End of TV channels. Home phones now replaced by VOIP. TV replace by on demand downloads , Utube and Netflix.
j) immersion gaming. Virtual reality becoming achievable
k) backlashes against the cuts become increasingly violent
how am I doing ?
I’ll comment on this in detail in a bit….
OK Mark…
a) End of Privacy – as predicted by the owner of Facebook and now highlighted by wikileaks. AGREE. IT’S NO LONGER THE DEFAULT SETTING/OPTION.
b) Augmented reality
Increasing number of tablet computers such as Samsung Galaxy and probably the ipad 2 have with multiple cameras, GPS and web access for fast backoffice analysis of the views. YES. I THINK I COVERED THIS LAST YEAR (THIS YEAR) BUT IT’S NOT MAINSTREAM YET.
c) 4D. YES – COMING. LOOK AT GAMING.
3D plus touch like ultrasonics becoming more mainstream
d) 3d printers – waiting for the killer app for this one ?
May be 3d printers for genetic engineers to make there own critters (long shot)
YES AGAIN. BUT GIVE IT 5-10 MORE YEARS TO BECOME COMMON.
e) bubbles burst – gold price collapse.
TOTALLY AGREE!!!! COULD BE GOLD (WILL BE EVENTUALLY), COULD BE REAL ESTATE AGAIN (POSSIBLY IN CHINA), COULD BE CLEAN-TECH???
BUT OF COURSE THEY ARE ONLY BUBBLES WHEN THEY BURST.
f) Global tensions – taken out on the likes of Iran and North korean via staged fake wikileak releases. TOTALLY AGREE AND I’M ONTO THIS. SEE PUBLIC DOMAIN MOD/CIA REPORTS ON RISKS SUCH AS THESE.
g) Persecuted minorities – they always get a hard time. I AGREE AGAIN! I THINK WE’LL SEE A CONTINUED SHIFT TO THE RIGHT POLITICALLY IN US/EUROPE WITH IMMIGRANTS GETTING THE WORST OF IT. HOWEVER, THE SQUEEZED MIDDLE ARE ALSO HAVING A HARD TIME AND THEY HAVE MORE VOICE.
h) Take of free trade but not implementing free trade YES. PROTECTIONISM IS BACK AND WILL RAMP UP AS CHINA GROWS.
i) End of TV channels. Home phones now replaced by VOIP. TV replace by on demand downloads , Utube and Netflix. YES AND NO. YES BUT THIS IS STILL FRINGE.
j) immersion gaming. Virtual reality becoming achievable THIS LINKS TO YOUR 4D POINT
k) backlashes against the cuts become increasingly violent
IN THE UK I CAN’T SEE IT HAPPENING. THAT’S NOT TO SAY IT WILL ALL BE PEACEFUL BUT CULTURALLY IT DOESN’T FIT. IN SOME OTHER PLACES YES.
BIG CHANGE SINCE THE POLL TAX RIOTS IN 1990 AND TIANANMEN SQUARE IN 1989 IS SOCIAL MEDIA OF COURSE! FLASH POINTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STUDENTS.
how am I doing ?
GOOD!