How to spot ‘weak signals’

One of the biggest problems with the current digital deluge is the tendency to no longer see what’s directly in front of us. The sheer amount of information now being passed around means that we’re becoming less able to filter what’s really important from what’s really not. Information is no longer power. Our deep and undivided attention is.

Constant digital distraction (which results in constant partial attention) also means that our concentration spans are shortening (or so they say) and our peripheral vision is narrowing. Throw in some headphones and things aren’t looking good, especially if you are seeking new opportunities or risks. This is because the early harbingers of forthcoming upheaval and disruption are often hidden in tiny snippets of seemingly trivial information or obscured in plain sight in the shadows and auditory obfuscations of our everyday existence.

So how can you spot these ‘weak signals’ or other forerunners of change? How can you spot things that don’t tend to announce themselves in huge data sets? How can you mine for insights in research groups when you don’t know exactly what you are looking for?

The answer is to develop a mind-set that’s always looking for these things. You need to become more attuned to instinct and gut feelings. You need to become furiously curious. You need constantly look for things that are new and might represent a shift in how things are seen or done. But to do this you need to unfreeze and then re-set your mind-set towards deep looking and deep listening.

You also need to go to where anomalies initially emerge, which tends to mean the edges or fringes of established markets and thinking. This might be young minds or it could be academic institutions or upstart start-ups. It might even be passionate users of particular products and services (‘super-users’) or particular places where being different or quirky is seen as being culturally useful or prestigious (California not North Dakota, although the urban fringes of Fargo might contain something, or someone, of interest).

Or you can be lazy. Cultural change often procedes technological or regularly change, so become attuned to new currents in advertising, music and film. For example, I heard the lyric “Don’t go digital on me” in a song lyric the other day. Is that significant? Or there’s an ad on TV for a chocolate bar with the slogan “undivide your attention.” Again, significant?

Beyond anecdotes like these it’s rather difficult to be precise. After all, how can one explain what one’s looking for when one doesn’t really know what one is looking for and whatever it that you are looking for keeps changing the whole time? I think the answer to this is to accept that you will never fully know and to keep looking regardless.

This isn’t something that’s ad hoc. You cannot create a ‘search party’ that looks for weak signals for a week and is then disbanded. It’s something that’s continuous and the activity will suit some personality types more than others.

Let me give you a few more examples. I was in Brooklyn, New York, recently. I was in a hotel lift and someone (I’m assuming not a graffiti artist) had written “Lonely together” in huge white letters on the glass panel inside the elevator. Why was it there? What did it mean? It could have been a subliminal ad for a TV show of the same name or perhaps it meant something more?

Or how about a few years ago when Google bought Zagat, the publisher of local restaurant guides (published on paper). This made no sense. Why would an online publisher (sorry, tech company) buy someone that puts ink on dead trees? Could it be that they were interested in local expertise or search or did they see a role for paper in a digital world? (come to think of it, why did Google send me summaries of my Google Adwords campaign in a posted letter – on paper?). Question anything that doesn’t make sense or doesn’t fit an established pattern. To invert a popular schooldays phrase: question every answer.

Of course, if you start frequenting the fringes you will inevitably bump into some fairly fringe people. Some will be weird, quite possibly annoying and probably of no use whatsoever. But don’t judge these people too soon. Maybe they aren’t crazy. Maybe they are right, but just a little bit early. What’s thought of as weird, crazy or just plain impossible one moment has a habit of becoming conventional wisdom over time. So, button your lip and keep your mainstream prejudices and cynicism to yourself. For example, there are ‘tech hermits’ living off-grid in rural North America. Some of these people claim that the use of mobile phones and Wi-Fi has made them sick. I had a boss once that carried a business card that read “Maybe they’re right” printed on the reverse. Maybe he was right.

This is the opened minded mind-set you’re after and it’s a mind-set that can equally be applied to reading newspapers, looking at webpages or talking to strangers on the subway. (Do you do that? Why not? Expand your network and experiences). Keep asking yourself why someone is saying something? What’s behind a story or opinion? What do they want? What’s their interest here? Are they alone in thinking or doing this?

Also, be aware that you (and everyone else) sees the world and everything in it through a lens hand-crafted from personal experience. What you need are interchangeable lenses. You need one that’s for narrow close ups and another for wide big picture panoramas.

And be aware that you will suffer from a number of notable cognitive biases too, most significantly confirmation bias. These biases seek to close our minds by persuading us (usually subconsciously) that what we are seeing aligns with things we’ve already seen or things we already think or believe. In other words, we tend to frame things in a particular way based upon what we’ve experienced before. You need to be aware of this and fight against it if you are to discover anything that vaguely resembles objective reality.

A more recent example of a weak signal. Why are twenty-somethings buying old tech? For example, what’s behind the re-birth of vinyl and why are so many people, including smart people that work in Silicon Valley and for MI5 (allegedly), using what might be called dumb-phones over smart- phones? Are the two things possibly connected? You can figure this one out yourself, but you might need to switch your smart-phone off to do this.

One final thought. Liberate yourself from the false precision of numbers. Weak signals are, by definition, weak. They are fuzzy, unclear and indistinct. They represent small numbers of people (sometimes just one person) bravely thinking about the world in a different way or doing things somewhat differently from almost everyone else. You cannot put meaningful numbers around these people to ‘prove’ that they are significant. If you can prove it it’s a trend (or possibly a fad or counter-trend) it no-longer represents a weak signal. Got it?

References:
Paul J.H . Shoemaker and George S. Day, ‘Making sense of weak signals’, MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring 2009,
Paul J.H. Shoemaker and George S. Day, ‘Scanning the Periphery’, Harvard Business Review, November 2005.
Martin Harrysson, Estelle Metayer and Hugo Sarrazin, ‘The strength of weak signals’, McKinsey Quarterly, February 2014.

Posted in Horizon scanning, Weak Signals | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

In the future you will pay with your face

In the distant future I think there’s a real possibility that keys will cease to exist. Instead we will open doors with our faces. Similarly, we won’t have cash or credit cards or even Apple Pay. What we will have is Apple Face Pay or some similar (Facebook Face?). We will pay for things by having machines scan our faces, which are probably a bit more secure than a signature, passwords we can’t remember or, in the case of physical locks, sets of keys (we currently carry an average of 9 metal keys, but have no idea what 3 do!),

In China, companies such as Face ++ (currently valued at around $1 billion), Alibaba and Baidu have developed such facial recognition technology already. Of course China is not the UK or US. In China surveillance is omnipresent and its people don’t seem to care about this too much. Minority Report and Face Off here we come….

Posted in Digital culture, Money & Financial Services | 1 Comment

So essentially stay at home

Thanks due to Matt Doyle for sign spotting. Do please send any further signs in, especially any related to risk or what might be termed ‘weak signals’.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

100 Most Disruptive Technologies

IMPORTANT UPDATE!
Little bit of an issue. The final table is now embargoed until Monday January 22 for various reasons. I’ll put the table and the PDF back up end of Monday. Sorry.

Posted in Disruptive Tech, roadmaps, Technology roadmaps | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

In-home delivery

I was eating (or attempting to) in a restaurant in London recently and the food took ages to arrive. Why? Because the kitchen kept cooking things for Uber Eat delivery drivers to collect, which seemed to take priority over the food for people actually sitting in the restaurant. I won’t be going back there again. But it seems I’m not alone.

Putting aside the fact I always seem to be in traffic stuck behind a van delivering supermarket items for people that can’t be bothered to visit a supermarket there’s a good example from New York that I heard about yesterday. Guy walks into a dry cleaners….but it’s not a joke. He want to pick up a suit, but there’s a queue of six people in front of him collecting parcels from Amazon or some such. This is because the dry cleaning shop has become an online delivery hub. His view was wait a minute, surely I have priority here. I’m using the dry cleaning for dry cleaning. Is he right or wrong?

So how to solve this. One idea being developed by Amazon is in-home delivery even when you are out. If you fit a digital lock to your front door you can digitally authorise companies or delivery people to open the door and drop things off. Or for that matter allow cleaners, baby sitters, dog walkers etc to get in when you are out.

I can see this working for people in rented apartments with nothing worth stealing, but otherwise I’m not convinced. Depends how much you trust the likes of Amazon, Uber etc I guess, which in my case is not a lot. Actually, I can see this being widely adopted by younger generations. Also, on the plus side, if all your stuff is stolen I guess you can let the insurance claims guy in when you’re not at home too.

BTW, in case you think that same day delivery is a fixed feature of the future it might not be. I’ve been told on good authority that in the UK a delivery costs £20, so on orders of £25 or £30 this may not be sustainable…unless, of course, we give the job to robots.

Posted in Digital culture, Retail, Weak Signals | Leave a comment

Could do better

Boring graphic from WEF. This is much more interesting….digital drinks.

Posted in Food & Drink | Leave a comment

Brainmail is back

Well this is probably a record even by my abysmally low standards. The problem is that I’ve more or less given up reading newspapers, which makes finding Brainmail material more difficult. Why have I given up? Partly it’s because there’s next to nothing of interest in them nowadays and partly because what is in them depresses me. But I have found a solution. Read newspapers when they are a week or even a month old. It’s much easier to scan and filter them and also somewhat Zen. The antics of Trump, Putin, Jean Claude Junkers and Kim Jong-un somehow don’t worry me when it’s all yesterday’s news.

Two bits of recent news that did appeal to me concern two rogue robots. The first was an autonomous K5 security robot that drowned itself in a water feature inside an office complex in Washington DC. Evidence of true artificial intelligence surely? The second was a security robot, also a K5, hired by an animal shelter in San Francisco to scare off homeless people. (Surely they need a K9? Geddit?). I’m still processing that thought. A robot hired to scare away homeless people from a shelter for homeless animals. Nope, I still can’t cope with that thought.

Anyway, here’s the new brainmail (issue 105 no less).

Issue links:
http://brainmail.nowandnext.com/brainmail_issue105.txt
Or re-sized to read on your phone
http://brainmail.nowandnext.com/brainmail_issue105i.txt

Posted in Brainmail | Leave a comment

Stumbled upon…

Not too far from what I was thinking….

Posted in Automation, Automotive & Transport, Scenarios | Leave a comment

Predictions for 2018 (from 1968)

Lovely article in The New Yorker (part above) about what a bunch of smart people in 1968 thought 2018 might look like. Lots of things way off the mark, but a few, especially around climate change and computing, that are more or less on the money.

The bext bit is the end bit. Let’s worry less about what might happen 50 years into the future and worry more about affecting change in the present. Amen to that.

Full article.

Posted in Futurists, Predictions | Tagged | Leave a comment

List of Disruptive Technologies

It’s almost done! (although hard to believe with this image).

Posted in Disruptive Tech, Imperial College, Tech Foresight, Tech trends, Technology, Technology Foresignt | Leave a comment