Future Gazing

From a 2014 horizon scanning report. Now a good question that flows from this is who gets listened to?, when? and why?

What’s next? I can only see two scenarios. 1). Putin gets what he wants – largely because the West, and critically China, decide not to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Then perhaps he extends his expansion to Moldova, Georgia and even further. Ukraine itself is possibly split into two, with Russia taking the larger East of the country and the democratic government holding onto the far West. Sporadic fighting continues for years. 2). Putin finds the going harder and slower than expected. Sanctions cripple the Russian economy, social unrest grows, there is a palace coup and that’s the end of him. There is a third scenario, but at the moment there’s no off ramp for Putin in my opinion and he is committed. Also, the humiliation of backing down would be too much to bear (which is why this situation is so dangerous).

War in Space

So, the Chinese believe they may have a functioning space solar facility by the year 2035 in which solar energy is collected in space and beamed back to earth via radio waves. I featured space solar technology on the outer edge of my Table of Disruptive Technologies in 2018, but it seems to be happening faster than expected. Then again, this could simply be propaganda. But if it isn’t there could be trouble ahead. Don’t be fooled, data isn’t the new oil, electricity is, and if oil was behind war in the 20th Century so electricity will be behind war in the 21st Century. China has a vast population, but few natural resources and strategically needs to be energy self-sufficient as soon as possible. If energy moves to space then space could be the location of a war between China and the US.