I’m sitting looking out of a window unable to see very much due to the snow storm outside. I think this could be a good metaphor for 2011. The only visible trend is that there’s no clear trend visible (or as Olga put it yesterday, the only certainty is uncertainties). Anyway, here’s another one…

#7. Feature fatigue
The recession may have promoted austerity and frugality in individuals and institutions, especially in developed nations, but there seems to be one industry where a no-frills future is still an alien concept – consumer electronics. In everything from washing machines to computers, manufacturers seem to be involved in an arms race of adding sophisticated new features. This is creating feature fatigue among ordinary consumers, who simply want things to work and have little or no need (or time) for anything fancy. There are a handful of exceptions to this. Apple makes products that are easy to use even if they contain extra features hidden under the surface. But there is still work to be done. White goods manufacturers and car companies, in particular, might like to get started by removing the various buzzes and beeps that tell you to do something, or at least make them an opt in option rather than something you can’t easily remove or re-program.

Implications
Expect to see more stripped down products, partly because people in the West don’t want them, but also because consumers in developing regions don’t want them either. A good example of this is netbooks – super-cheap computers that can be used for simple tasks and not much else. Tata’s Nano is another example. This is essentially a stripped down micro-car that dispenses with many of the so-called essentials found in small cars in the West. Incidentally, the other reason that striped down products will do well in the future is that societal ageing means that people will have less money and older people like products with big buttons that are easy to use and understand.

#6. Pyjamas
In 1970, Alvin and Heidi Toffler wrote about the “Future Shock” created by rapid technological change. Fast-forward to 1991 and Faith Popcorn predicted the emergence of ‘cocooning’ – a reaction against the unpredictable and somewhat stressful nature of modern life. Scrawl forward again a few digital decades and it looks like more of the same.
So what have pyjamas (PJs, Jim-Jams, sleep suits et al) got to do with rapid technological acceleration and rampant economic uncertainty? Simple. They offer physical and emotional warmth in cold and complex times. But escapism isn’t the only reason. More people are working from home nowadays, so what some people wear to work doesn’t really matter. We are also spending more leisure time at home surfing websites rather than going out, so this is fuelling the trend also.

Implications
Rising sales of nighttime clothing, especially ‘third wardrobe’ items that can be worn in bed, around the house or front of the television or computer. BTW, if you are the type of person that likes to go shopping, or collect the children, wearing PJs there’s a word for you. It’s “No!”

#5. Resurgent Religion
Imagine no religion. It appears that many people can’t. Education, science and technology are supposed to be making religion redundant but it appears that the opposite is the case. When times are complex and confusing religion offers people hope alongside universal truth. Indeed, when life becomes a struggle economically, or uncertain environmentally, religion offers an easy to understand view of why things are as they are and how they will eventually work out.

Clearly the growth of fundamentalism is one aspect of this but religion is enjoying resurgence across the board, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the reason for this is globalization. Religious beliefs now move around more freely. Similarly, urbanization and social media are bringing people and ideas closer together.

Implications
Expect to see a resurgence in traditional practices, rituals and beliefs, including pilgrimages. Also expect to see rise in spiritualism and an interest in the afterlife (much of it linked to societal ageing). Finally, expect continued sectarian violence in some regions.

—

PS:  Trends update. I can’t decide whether ‘Age of Rage’ should be one of my 10 trends for 2011. I had ‘fear & loathing’ as a top 10 trend for 2010 and I’ve got ‘discontent’ as a trend for 2011 (see previous 2011 trends post).  To some extent I think I’m over-reacting about current events and extrapolating too soon – but I’m not sure.

#4. Formality
Democracy and anti-elitism have led to the growth of informality in recent years. This has been accelerated by the egalitarian tendencies of the Internet – or at least by the egalitarian ethos of internet start-ups. However, the global recession has created a counter-trend. Seriousness is back in vogue and older people have started to dress smarter in a vain attempt to keep their jobs. This formality has trickled down to younger individuals, especially those concerned with getting or keeping a professional career. To some extent this trend is cyclical, but it is also connected with an interest in tradition, craft and artisan skills. Another accelerant is popular revulsion at yobbish culture, especially in the UK.

Implications
A resurgence in manners, formal dining and bespoke menswear. Also watch-out for a resurgence in period drama, books about the Victorians and traditional Sunday roasts.

#3. Discontent
In the US, 20% of American men aged between 25-55 are now unemployed. In the 1960s 95% of the same group had a job. This could be reason enough to get angry but the bad news doesn’t end there. Food prices are rising, energy costs are increasing and the US faces the prospect of economic decline relative to the emerging powers, most of which have come out of the global recession relatively unscathed. In Europe things aren’t much better. In the UK indirect taxes are going up and infrastructure investment (police, health, transport, education etc) is going down. This all adds up to people paying more to get less, which could clearly lead to trouble.

Implications
Rising rage founded on the realization that current generations may not enjoy the standards of living that were experienced by their parents and grandparents. Where this rage will be channeled is anybody’s guess, but we might see a resurgence of protectionist economic policies, anti-immigration rhetoric and populist right-wing politics. By the way, don’t write off the US just yet. It’s far larger economically than China at present and it’s still unclear whether China can change from an export orientated, low-cost manufacturing model to one built around upstream innovation.
—

Please be aware that this list of trends does not replace previous lists but represents additional trends that are – or are expected – to emerge. They are generally additions rather than replacements and not necessarily the biggest trends either. They are simply things that interest me.

#2. Volatility

Intimately connected to uncertainty is volatility. The root cause of this is the connectivity now built into everything from financial markets to media and communications. This means the constant threat of cascading failure, with financial markets at the epicenter of seismic events. In some cases the risk can be real. The threat of a debt crisis in one country can lead to a genuine crisis of confidence in another. However, contagion can be imagined and in some cases manufactured. Information pandemics rapidly spread false or misleading information, but such is the rapidity of the cycle that nobody has the time to verify the facts or call to account those spreading disinformation.

Implications
Commodity price spikes and wild fluctuations in the price of assets. Indeed, volatility means that nobody is quite sure what the underlying value of many assets now is, which only adds to the volatility. Some people will make huge amounts of money from such movements, although where one can safely stash such rewards is far from clear.
Watch out for more individuals flocking to ‘safe’ investments such as art, prime real estate, agricultural land, gilts, low risk bonds and gold.

#1. Uncertainty

In 2011, nothing will be certain except uncertainty. With the economic recovery still brittle in many parts of the world, people will be looking for safety, reassurance and control. They will be disappointed. What people can expect, with some degree of certainty, is that there will be widespread anxiety, especially in financial markets, and there will be a background expectation that something will sooner or later go wrong.

Implications

Politicians and markets will swing between irrational pessimism and irrational exuberance and this will create policies (and prices) that tend to overshoot and then over-correct. On the domestic front, people will hold off making big-ticket purchases until there is a clearer view of what lies ahead. They may have to wait a long time. Nostalgia will be big in 2011 because it offers people a glimpse of simpler, safer, and more certain times.

I was in Sweden yesterday so I missed the panic on the streets of London (to quote part of an old Smiths song). Seems that some students got a bit upset and stormed the Conservative Party HQ. Who says students do nothing all day? I can’t see that this was a smart thing to do, although this presupposes a level of organisation and forward planning that probably doesn’t exist.

What was also a monumental mistake was the Prime Minister simultaneously saying that sharp rises in tuition fees would make studying in the UK more affordable for foreign students. Oh that will really help calm things down.

Who is this man listening to? Rather than surrounding himself with “advisors” that sell shoes (Tamara Mellon) and design handbags (Anya Hindmarch) perhaps he needs someone that has an understanding of the concerns of people that don’t live in Notting Hill.

Here’s my current draft of 10 Trends for 2011.

1. Uncertainty
2. Volatility
3. Resurgent religion
4. Stop-go economics
5. Formality
6. Bifurcation
7. Digital disaffection
8. Squeezed middle classes
9.Unemployment
10. Rage