Trends are not where the future is found

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I’ve had a bit of an epiphany. I was talking to someone last week about what the future of retail might look like…in 2020. That’s right, how the future will look in 48-months. Such a timescale automatically pulls anyone back into now and the projection of current trends and technologies forward. This is when reality destroys your thinking. I was polite and hopefully helpful but that’s me done. I’m no longer interested in the year after next or anything less than a decade away. As far as possible I am going to stop using trends as an excuse to talk about the future and think about the real future instead. From now in it’s timescales of 2030, 2040 and 2050 .

London’s best thinking spaces?

Just been thinking about the best places in London to host a small discussion about the far future. Places that are inspiring and which open minds.

I’ll come back on a short list of places soon. In the meantime a quote for Friday (appropriate because I’m also in the early stages of helping to organise an panel discussion about science and science fiction).

“One alien is a curiosity, two are an invasion.” Ursula K. Le Guin.

VR

A post from Matt, who is usually hidden behind a screen…

Virtual reality systems have been around since the late 1960s, but the technology is now reaching a tipping point. In 1991, a complete Virtuality headsets-and-gloves VR system would set you back up to $73,000. In contrast, when it launches next year, the highly-anticipated, Facebook-owned Oculus Rift VR headset is likely to cost around $1,500 for a complete system, including the PC. Not to be outdone, Sony’s Playstation VR headset — also due out next year — is slated to cost around $400. Moving further down the price scale, by the time you read this you should be able to pick up a Samsung Gear VR headset for just $99 (though you’ll need a high-end Samsung phone to power it). But for a “cheaper than chips” option, you can’t beat Google Cardboard: a cardboard-box headset into which you slot your smartphone. You can buy pre-made ones for less than 20 bucks, or even make your own out of some card, a couple of lenses and magnets, some strips of velcro, and a rubber band.

 
Now that virtual reality is affordable for anyone, it just needs some killer apps for it to take off. Games are the obvious one, but they may just be scratching the surface of VR’s potential. Coming next year, The Martian VR Experience is a tie-in with Ridley Scott’s hit movie The Martian. The 20-minute VR adventure puts you in the lead character’s shoes as you try to survive solo on the Martian surface. Movie fans will also be excited by 20th Century Fox’s plans to bring over 100 movies to the Oculus Rift and Gear VR headsets. Titles so far include Alien (if you dare), Die Hard, and Office Space.

 
Another exciting development is Jaunt, A Silicon Valley startup that provides an end-to-end cinematic VR system for filmmakers, from a custom 3D camera and editing tools through to apps that run on the Google Cardboard and Oculus Rift platforms. They already have some pretty impressive demos that you can try today, from immersive news reports and sporting events through to rock concerts and documentaries. Other future boom areas for VR include education and training, urban design, and even therapy for anxiety disorders and phobias. At this point, virtual reality still has some drawbacks and challenges to overcome, including motion sickness, balance problems, and possibly even addiction. But as VR has become affordable for almost everyone, and VR applications are starting to take off, the technology’s future over the next few years looks very bright indeed.