2012 Food Trends

Interesting that none of the recent articles and lists on 2012 food trends have mentioned biodynamics, although I have spotted the odd stand alone article. If you’re not familiar with biodynamics it’s roughly the idea that everything is part of a dynamic system, so it’s a little bit like organics, but taken to a much wider and deeper level.

The only problem with biodynamics as far as I can see, apart from the sense that it looks like a fad rather than a trend, are the astrological aspects of biodynamics, namely the fact that people should plant and harvest crops according to phases of the moon. This is not in itself totally nuts, but linking things to the 12 constellations of the zodiac sounds like it is.

Britain in 2012

I was moaning about a lack of 2012 trends material the other day, so it was nice to hear from Dean over at McCann, an advertising agency, in London. Herewith their run down on 2012 trends with a focus on the UK.

The Twidiot filter is especially interesting and should immediately be shown to the table of 12 people I sat next to in Switzerland last week at dinner. I swear to you that they all ate dinner for over an hour all glued to various mobile devices (one even had head phones on throughout). I think they must have spoken directly to each other for less than five minutes.

Click here to view Britain 2012. BTW, a nice counter-point to this would be Britain in 2012 by the ESRC.

The World in the Year 2020

What will life be like in the year 2020? It’s sounds a long way off but it’s not, so it should be fairly easy to make a series of educated guesses. One of the largest discernable differences could be climate. Over the past 100 years atmospheric temperatures have risen by 0.6 degrees centigrade globally. Over the next 8-12 years they can be expected to rise by a similar amount. So by 2020 it might be possible to sail right across the North Pole. Water from melting ice caps will disperse so many of the planet’s lowest-lying areas will disappear under water. So if you want to see polar bears – or visit the Great Barrier reef which will be severely damaged by rising sea temperatures – do it sooner rather than later.

On the medical front things are looking much healthier. Death rates from common cancers will have fallen, possibly by as much as 25%, and drug combinations and genetically-based treatments will treat specific tumours. Home-based robots will be commonplace, although it is doubtful whether they will become ‘pets’ as some experts are predicting. Moreover, developments in nanotechnology will displace robots in many areas. The idea of having robotic butlers to help clean up the kitchen won’t come to fruition because many of the jobs will be done by nanoparticles instead. Surfaces like kitchen bench-tops, for example, will be self-cleaning. We will also see computerised clothing enter mainstream usage with our clothes warning us if there is a biohazard nearby or perhaps telephone the nearest doctor if you fall ill or injure yourself.

Then there’s energy. It’s unlikely that many of us will be driving around in fuel-cell powered cars by 2020 and hydrogen power will still be a way off but it does look pretty certain that we will rely on more diverse sources of power. These will include solar (far more important), wind, water and tidal power generation and we’ll also see a major switch to nuclear power (possibly thorium-based power stations using spent nuclear waste). Finally there’s some bad news. Historically there have been five mass extinction periods in the earth’s history and we are about to enter a sixth. Climate change, together with urbanisation and intensive agriculture will continue to destroy a great number of species. How many? No one is saying exactly but it’s likely to at least a thousand times the natural rate.

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That was interesting. Just been in Switzerland, which turns out to be my 20th country in 18 months. Full of Russians! Lots of private bank ads and watch ads too (are the three things connected?). Trains a delight. Exchange rate less so.

Still bemused by the lack of material on 2012 trends. I think it’s because people are more worried by the next 12 weeks rather than the next 12 months. If I find anything interesting I’ll be sure to post it. In the meantime working like mad to finish a new book (details to come).

Scenarios for Europe & beyond

At last some intelligent musings about 2012 and beyond. This weekend’s FT features a well thought out article by John Authers about what might happen in financial markets in the year ahead.

Scenario one is that markets take off once again and return to something resembling growth. Is a take off in the US plausible? It seems unlikely. As for Europe it seems very unlikely, with the structure of the euro preventing any sustainable solution to the current malaise (my words not his). As for Asia, things could pick up quite fast, but the connectivity of global markets would suggest that flat line growth in the US, or Europe, would impact other regions significantly. Overall the growth scenario is given a probability of just 10%.

Scenario two is disaster. Eurozone austerity packages virtually guarantee a recession and a break up of the Euro could trigger a collapse of the European banking system. This scenario is given a probability of 20%, which I feel is a low. I’d put it between 30-50%, with speculators probably shorting the major European banks or attacking individual countries in the next few weeks.

The third scenario is ‘the crab’, which is a nice way of saying that markets just move sideways for the next twelve months, which is more or less what the markets have done since 2008 (shades of 2012 being much like 2011 again).