I’m starting to think that all newspapers should be read historically so as to avoid futile analysis. Reading stories that are at least a week old allows the dust to settle and the air and the view ahead seem crisper.
BTW, this is pretty good on reflection….
“A mounting public rage that may well result in political instability, especially in poor nations, and manifest itself in widespread civil unrest.” (Report from the Dilenschneider Group, January 2009).
UPDATE (and I know this conflicts with the thought above!)
An overview on the Middle East and North Africa from some friends at Nomura, the Japanese investment bank.
1. As contagion spreads in the MENA, we acknowledge that the region appears to be experiencing a “1989 moment”, while recalling that transition in the former Soviet empire has been protracted and multi-directional.”
2. Yemen also continues to feel significant amounts of internal strife, which could lead to regime change over the intermediate term.
3. Libya aside, we currently see no direct threat to oil/gas output.
4. Nor do we see international military intervention in Libya necessarily as a precedent for similar action elsewhere in the region.
5. However, we acknowledge that potential disruption in oil/gas output in countries already experiencing protests, and/or contagion to as yet untroubled major oil producers, cannot be ruled out.
6. We see no sign of contagion outside the MENA for now but do not rule out the possibility longer term.—