Bye bye Belgium?

A few years ago Ross Dawson and I created an “extinction timeline” showing when a few familiar things might die out. For a bit of fun I put Belgium on it. There were two serious reasons for doing this. First, if there was one country that might not survive the 21st Century it was surely Belgium. Just look at it’s history.

Secondly, we assume that things like maps are fixed, but historically speaking they are fluid. We should not assume that where the lines are drawn today is where the lines will be drawn in the future.

Why am I telling you this now? Because Laurette Onkelinx, the woman tipped as the future Belgium premier, is openly talking about the need to “Get ready for the break up of Belgium.”

My digital diet

Yesterday I found that having spent several hours going through a mountain of recent emails I still had almost 3,000 unread. They all dated prior to July 15, so I decided to do something naughty. I hit the Apple A command and deleted all of them, sight unseen. I can’t tell you how good this felt. I don’t know quite what was in there, although I’d guess about 30% was spam, 50% was things I’d opted into and 20% I have no idea. It’s possible that there was something important in there, but I figured if there was it would resurface sooner or later.

Next I’m getting rid of a load of RSS feeds and Google alerts, most of which seem to be compounding the problem of too much information rather than helping to solve it. Anyway, what was I thinking when I set up an alert for “Indian statistics”?

My overall aim here is to consume less digital media and to chew things over properly. This should leave more room for a few much bigger helpings of the things that I find especially tasty.

Stat of the day. In 2008, people in the US people consumed three times as much information as they did in 1960. Cerebral obesity? Perhaps not.

Harry Potter and the Da Vinci book of Sodoku

Future Minds has now gone off to print, which is why the blog has suddenly become so active. BTW, did you know that authors are now under pressure from publishers to write books that have titles that are search engine optimised? So I’ve been thinking about what my next book should be called. So far I’ve come up with three ideas.

1. Harry Potter and the Da Vinci code book of Sodoku
2. Six sigma secrets to time management trends
3. What Paris Hilton and the New York Yankees know about innovation

Dyslexics and creative thinking

Here’s a good joke. I’m a dyslexic agnostic. I don’t believe in dog. Why am I telling you this? Because there’s a statistic in The Economist saying that 35% of US entrepreneurs are dyslexics compared with only 1% of US corporate managers. Perhaps corporations can’t handle people who think differently? For the record, here’s a quick list of a few dyslexics.

  • Albert Einstein
  • W.B. Yeats
  • Leonardo da Vinci
  • Ingvar Kamprad
  • John Lennon
  • F. Scott Fitzgerald
  • Thomas Edison
  • Jay Leno
  • Andy Warhol
  • William Hewlett
  • Richard Branson
  • Agatha Christie
  • Henry Ford
  • Robin Williams
  • Alexander Graham Bell
  • Thomas Jefferson
  • Jackie Stewart
  • George Washington
  • Muhammad Ali
  • Hans Christian Anderson
  • Pablo Picasso
  • Ted Turner
  • Richard Rogers
  • Jorn Utzon

Where and when do you do your best thinking?

I like this. I am using an edited version of this quote in my new book, Future Minds, but I rather like this longer version. It reminds me of a guy at IBM that I once did some work for. He was a smoker and talked about his “thinking sticks.” Only problem is he’s not really allowed to use them anymore (or at least the places where he can “think” are being restricted).

This is a quote from Charles Constable, Director of Strategy at Channel Five Television (thanks Charles).

“Often the ‘spark’ comes when I am not supposed to be thinking. I’m afraid I am a smoker – now sentenced to pursue this awful habit outside. I think smoking is about relaxing (for me at least) – so I let my mind stop being boxed in by whatever I was doing before hand. That’s when it gets to work on its own, and that’s when it works most laterally – both in terms of what it ‘chooses’ to decide to mull on and in terms of connections it makes between things. I sometimes find it hard to retain the thoughts when having to get back to the day job of the next immediate challenge – usually have to write it down or say it to someone. This works particularly well late at night or when it’s quiet. Or alternatively – in the bath… …a bit of a cliché but true…I think the other time I think well is when I am stealing ideas from others! People say things, which lead you to make good, new connections – to see things in ways you had not previously. I’ve often said that the best ideas I have came from someone else. This is where ‘sparks’ can be molded into something more concrete that you can really do something with. So at work I like to think with 1 or (no more than) 2 people through an iterative thought process. Two brains are often better than one for really good constructive thinking. Too many brains and the process gets tough.”

Smaller and smarter – the future of fighter aircraft?

Here’s an interesting thought. In 2003, when the US defeated Saddam Hussein, America logged around 35,000 flight hours using un-manned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drone aircraft to you and me). By 2009 this figure had increased to 800,000 hours and the market for UAVs is now worth almost $5 billion globally. Countries that use UAVs now include the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Israel, Georgia and Sri-Lanka and the US military expects to spend $22 billion developing drones between 2007 and 2013.

Why the growth? Cost primarily. Operating costs of drone fleets can be 5% of conventional aircraft fleets. Drones can be harder to spot or shoot down and losses matter less because there are no human pilots involved.

But what happens when very high cost is replaced by very low cost? Will countries be more willing to take risks or do something silly? If direct human judgement in the air is replaced by human judgement filtered through a screen (far away from the actual action) what will the consequences be? I guess we’ll find out.