China Wildcard

You are going to think I’m totally mad but I have a gut feeling that China is going to collapse. Not today. Not next week. Not even next year. But I think that within the next ten years – maybe fifteen – it’s going to fall over. Why? First of all its economy displays all the classic signs of a bubble. Look at real estate for example. Secondly, it’s banking system contains too many bad loans and, third, the population has an imbalance of young males. Why is the latter an issue? Because if growth stalls (well under 4% say) and unemployment rises substantially there could be big trouble. I’m almost certainly wrong. This is something that’s possible rather than something that’s probable. But if China did collapse what would happen in the rest of the world? Has anyone run any scenarios against this? What would the oil price do for instance? Or how about what happens if China stops buying US debt? Yikes.

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6 Responses to China Wildcard

  1. Dennis says:

    The world would not let it, methinks…

  2. Max Kaehn says:

    They’re also wrecking their environment just about as fast as their economy is growing. And they’ve been using selective abortion to get an excess population of young males. (India is also doing the latter; given the traditional means for a country to deal with an excess population of young males, the Himalayas cannot be high enough. I’m just hoping that we develop effective, inexpensive sexbots in time to defuse the problem…)

  3. aleafinwater says:

    and you’re not even mentioning the human rights violations or insane amounts of government censorship. Google already made steps away from china this year..

  4. Richard says:

    me thinks you are right Dennis ….too big to fail as they say.

  5. Isao says:

    Have you visited China yourself? Yes, the numbers show us a gloomy future but I have seen peple saying the China collapse theory actually visit there and change their minds. I am not a China advocate but I believe China will stand its time (though shaky at times), though maybe not as a world leader but as a world producer.

  6. Richard Watson says:

    I hope this doesn’t happen – honestly. I was in Hong Kong last week and hope to visit the mainland later this year. Then I’ll probably change my mind! Thanks for your comment.

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