I did a talk a couple of days ago at the Group of 100 National Congress. This is essentially an audience of CFOs. Here are a few of the statistics that I used to illustrate a few trends…
1. The Power Shift Eastwards
â€¢ 85% of the world’s population will live in emerging markets by 2050.
â€¢ In 2005 there were 16 Chinese companies in the Fortune 500. By 2007 there were 22.
â€¢ Trade between India and China was worth US$2 billion a year in 2000. By the end of 2007 it was worth $2 billion per month.
â€¢ Today Asia (including Japan) represents around 13% of GDP. Western Europe represents around 30%. In 20 years these two figures will have converged.
2. Rising Global Connectivity
â€¢ There are currently 1.5 billion devices connected to the Internet. By 2012 there will be 14 billion and 95% of these devices will NOT be computers.
â€¢ There are 210 million Internet users in China
â€¢ 72 billion corporate emails currently sent every single working day. Predicted to be 150 billion within the next 3-4 years.
3. GRIN Technologies
â€¢ If you index the cost of robot labour to human labour with 1990 as the base (i.e. 1990 = 100) the cost of robots has fallen from 100-18.5 while the cost of humans has moved from 100-151.
â€¢ In 2004 there were 610,000 robots in ‘domestic service’ worldwide. By the end of 2007 this figure had increased to 6m.
â€¢ When the telephone was introduced in the US in the late 1800s/early 1900s it took 50 years for 50% of the US population to acquire one. With cell-phones it’s taken just 7.
4. Societal Ageing
â€¢ In industrialized countries the 60+ group was 12% of population in 1950. Now 20%.
â€¢ In the US between 2002-2010 the number of people aged 18-44 will decline by 1%. Meanwhile, the number aged 55+ will increase by 21% over the same period and the number aged between 55-64 will rise by 47%.
â€¢ In the UK, consumer spending by those aged 65-74 is expected to increase by 40% between now and 2017.
â€¢ The shortfall in the national pension fund in China to meet the needs of current retirees is $315 billion.
5. The Environment
â€¢ Demand for oil is likely to increase by 50% over the next 20 years.
â€¢ China will have built 562 new coal-fired power plants by 2012.
â€¢ Only 1% of city dwellers in China breathe air that is considered safe according to EU standards (300,000 die in China each year due to air pollution)
â€¢ 23% of Briton’s are bored with eco-news and 18% say they have exaggerated their commitment to the environment because it’s fashionable.